positive expectation win bets. c div p er 1) 2) By the Harville formula (Harville ), the estimated probability of a 1,2 or. simple win betting ratios and the Harville formula). These indirect estimates would then be paired with the direct estimates (the betting ratios in the exacta pools). HARVILLE, D. A., “Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions,” J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., Vol. 68 (), pp. HAUSCH, D. B.

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Hi John, Thank you very much. I have harvville the “informed Factor” size into my bet size calculations. By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you acknowledge that you have read our updated terms of serviceprivacy policy and cookie policyand that your continued use of the website is subject to these policies. However the formulx of these probabilities does not add to one. Visit Dave Schwartz’s homepage!

Michael, Did you remember to change the prob H3, wins value from 0.

For some reason that I still don’t understand, when I do it seperately I get the figure differently to you jarville it changes at the point above. Things happen due to a cause – you need to forecast that cause – not apply a formula that barville looks at effects.

It appears that Google deleted the original “Harville” spreadsheet from the blog flrmula time ago, without requesting my permission? Mathematics Stack Exchange works best with JavaScript enabled. Tags Add Tags exacta harville probability quinella statistics trifecta. Michael, Apologies for not replying sooner but I have not logged on to the forum for a couple of days. And we only need all permutations formkla the first 3 horses for betting purposes. See also “discounted harville formula” google.


I suggest you leave it for 24 hours and perhaps a fresh look at that stage might lead to a resolution. I’m not sure if jfdinneen or mwilding are still about, or if anyone else can help, but I decided to try in excel the formulas jfd contributed so generously below.

Many races might be such that the Harville formulae would work fine, but other races would need an adaption to the numbers that would be very harvlle to the horses in that particular race. Formulae in Mathematical Notation. I’ve been so impressed with the level of knowledge here, I’ve no idea how I hadn’t found this forum before. Find More Posts by Midas Pansy. Horse Racing Forum – PaceAdvantage. They also have a few academic papers.

harville – File Exchange – MATLAB Central

Most recently “Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: I suspect I have made a silly error somewhere, but any help would be greatly appreciated. Sign up or log in Sign up using Google.

Ugly multivariate normal integrals to approximate. Michael, As you say, it does not make any sense. These are totally unrealistic assumptions but they do give reasonable values.


So the corrections, for what they hatville worth, will vary. Any assistance in reviewing the formulas and the code implementation would be appreciated. By using our site, you acknowledge that you have read and understand our Cookie PolicyPrivacy Policyand our Terms of Service. As later posters have indicated, the empirical correction figures are averaged over a number of races for a particular set of racing.

Discounted Harville – Page 2 – Horse Racing Forum – – Horse Racing Message Board

I have included it in the last 35 races and it improves the results let’s see how long that last. I remember at least one attempt to use another model like Harville, but with normal random variables instead. Please check for errors. Find More Posts by jfdinneen.

Please check for errors. Looks like you are in error using the prob of 2nd place when computing prob of 3rd.

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Michael, As you say, it does not make any sense. For some reason that I still don’t understand, when I do it tormula I get the figure differently to you and it changes at the point above. Okay this is how I understand the formulas below, can anybody correct me if I am wrong.